The world ahead: what will 2026 look like for the Ukrainian economy? The years of the full-scale war have been a time of profound change and a struggle for survival for Metinvest. We lost assets in Mariupol and Avdiivka and were forced to suspend operations at our facilities in Pokrovsk. Yet, despite everything, Metinvest has remained the country’s largest industrial player and one of the key contributors to Ukraine’s defence forces. Because a strong state is impossible without a strong economy, and an economy cannot exist without a powerful industrial base.
Before the war, the mining and metals sector accounted for around 10% of GDP; today, this figure has fallen to almost 6%. One job in the sector creates a further eight in related industries. Whatever the scenario for 2026, industry remains the backbone that supports tax revenues, value-added production, reconstruction and Ukraine’s place in the European market. For this reason, industrial policy must already be at the centre of attention and become a matter of daily, coordinated effort between private business and the state. Otherwise, even after the war ends, we will not be able to restore the industrial strength of our country.
For industry to function, business does not require much: access to financing and markets – above all the European one – as well as state protection for domestic producers, including closing loopholes that allow Russian steel to enter the EU market.
European integration will open up new opportunities that Ukraine must not miss. The country’s processing industries can become an important pillar of Europe’s ‘green’ transition. At Metinvest, we are ready to contribute and to serve as a bridge connecting Ukrainian and European steelmaking. However, for us and for other sectors, it is crucial to make full use of this moment and opportunity. By recognising the strategic importance of domestic production, the state can revive industry. And perhaps the theme of a future edition of “The World Ahead” will not be global militarisation, but the positive chain effect of Ukraine’s industrial recovery.